Tale 2b: Post-1997 probabilities for Mw>=9.9 earthquakes on faults within 100 km of the 1995 Kobe event

   
Probabilities Without Kobe
 
Probabilities With Kobe
 
Probability Change due to Kobe
   
Poisson
  
Weibull
  
Poisson
 
Weibull
  
Poisson
  
Weibull
Fault Name   10 yrs 30 yrs   10yrs   30yrs   10 yrs   30 yrs   10yrs   30yrs   10yrs   30yrs   10yrs   30yrs
    (%)     (%)       (%)       (%)      
Gain (>1) or Loss (<1)
  
Gain (>1) or Loss (<1)
                                               
Arima-Takatsuki TL   1.00   2.96   0.60   1.82   4.51   7.72   5.51   9.56   4.52   2.61   9.1   5.3
(East Section)                 (3.18,   (5.77,   (3.79,   (6.92,   (3.19,   (1.95,   (6.27,   (3.81,
                  5.86)   9.69)   7.44)   12.59)   5.89)   3.28)   12.32)   6.94)
                                               
Arima-Takatsuki TL   1.00   2.96   0.81   2.43   0.006   0.030   0.003   0.018   0.006   0.011   0.004   0.007
(West Section)         (0.75,   (2.23,   (0.00005,   (0.0003,   (0.00003,   (0.0001,   (0.00005,   (0.0001,   (0.00003,   (0.00005,
          0.87)   2.61)   0.037)   0.21)   0.022)   0.12)   0.037)   0.07)   0.026)   0.05)
                                               
Median Tectonic Line   3.92   11.3   3.77   21.6   4.66   12.64   4.54   12.42   1.19   1.12   1.20   1.13
(Tokushima Section)                 (4.32,   (11.99,   (4.20,   (11.77,   (1.10,   (1.06,   (1.11,   (1.07,
                  5.26)   13.57)   5.12)   13.36)   1.34)   1.20)   1.36)   1.22)
                                               
Median Tectonic Line   2.60   7.59   2.94   8.59   0.23   1.13   0.23   1.13   0.09   0.15   0.08   0.13
(Naruto Section)         (2.68,   (7.87,   (0.02,   (0.12,   (0.02,   (0.12,   (0.009,   (0.02,   (0.008,   (0.01,
          3.15)   9.19)   0.76)   3.23)   0.79)   3.32)   0.29)   0.43)   0.27)   0.39)
                                               
Median Tectonic Line   1.98   5.82   2.04   6.03   2.27   6.37   2.38   6.71   1.15   1.09   1.16   1.11
(Wakayama Section)         (1.87,   (5.51,   (2.16,   (6.16,   (2.14,   (6.06,   (1.09,   (1.06,   (1.10,   (1.07,
          2.21)   6.49)   2.49)   6.78)   2.69)   7.42)   1.26)   1.16)   1.27)   1.18)
                                               
Yamasaki fault   1.00   2.96   0.85   2.54   1.18   3.32   1.04   2.93   1.19   1.12   1.23   1.15
                  (1.11,   (3.16,   (0.97,   (2.77,   (1.11,   (1.07,   (1.14,   (1.09,
                  1.35)   3.64)   1.20)   3.21)   1.36)   1.23)   1.41)   1.27)
                                               
Yamasaki fault   1.00   2.96   0.85   2.54   0.45   1.65   0.34   1.26   0.45   0.56   0.40   0.50
(Branch fault)                 (0.22,   (0.89,   (0.17,   (0.67,   (0.22,   (0.30,   (0.20,   (0.27,
                  0.61)   2.14)   0.48)   1.67)   0.61)   0.72)   0.56)   0.66)
                                               
Hanaore fault   1.00   2.96   0.84   2.52   1.02   3.00   0.86   2.56   1.02   1.01   1.03   1.02
                  (0.99,   (2.96,   (0.84,   (2.51,   (1.00,   (1.00,   (1.00,   (1.00,
                  1.05)   3.06)   0.89)   2.63)   1.05)   1.04)   1.06)   1.05)
                                               
Uemachi fault   1.00   2.96   0.82   2.44   0.62   2.15   0.46   1.62   0.62   0.73   0.58   0.67
          (0.74,   (2.22,   (0.39,   (1.47,   (0.28,   (1.07,   (0.39,   (0.50,   (0.35,   (0.45,
          0.88)   2.63)   0.83)   2.62)   0.65)   2.10)   0.83)   0.89)   0.80)   0.85)
                                               
Ikoma fault   1.00   2.96   0.82   2.45   0.74   2.42   0.56   1.85   0.75   0.82   0.71   0.78
          (0.74,   (2.22,   (0.55,   (1.92,   (0.41,   (1.46,   (0.55,   (0.65,   (0.51,   (0.61,
          0.88)   2.62)   0.88)   2.72)   0.71)   2.22)   0.88)   0.92)   0.86)   0.90)
Uncertainties in the calculated probabilities were estimated with a Monte Carlo technique. Model parameters errors were assumed to be normally distributed, with estimated or assumed standard deviations as indicated. Each probability was calculated 1000 times, with values drawn at random from these distributions. the probability uncertainty (shown within parenthesis) is taken to be the 15.9% an 84.1% quantiles of the resulting suite of values, corresponding to 1 standard deviations. The assumed friction parameters are v=0.75; =23.3 7.7 yr; A =0.35 0.15; and =0.4-0.3.