What's the Probability of these faults causing an earthquake in the next 30 years?
Probability of at least one earthquake with Magnitude greater than 6.7 in the next 30 years somewhere on this map: 62%.
Map modified from shaking hazard web site developed by ABAG. Probabilities from USGS.
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Click on a fault segment on the map and then read its name and earthquake probability from the boxes above.
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How do scientists determine these probabilities?
The following table summarizes all the information found by clicking on the map above:
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Earthquake Scenario
fault segment name |
Estimated Magnitude
M
|
Probability
%
|
|
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San Andreas-North Golden Gate |
7.5 |
0.9 |
|
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San Andreas -- Peninsula |
7.2 |
4.4 |
|
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San Andreas -- Santa Cruz |
7.0 |
2.6 |
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Entire San Andreas (1906 Quake) | 7.9 |
4.7 |
|
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Rodgers Creek |
7.0 |
15.2 |
|
|
Rodgers Ck + North Hayward |
7.1 |
1.8 |
|
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North Hayward |
6.5 |
12.3 |
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South Hayward |
6.7 |
11.3 |
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North + South Hayward |
6.9 |
8.5 |
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Northern Calaveras | 6.8 |
12.4 |
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Central Calaveras |
6.2 |
13.8 |
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Maacama |
-- |
-- |
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West Napa |
-- |
-- |
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Concord/Green Valley |
6.7 |
6.0 |
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Greenville |
6.9 |
1.5 |
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Mount Diablo (thrust fault) |
6.7 |
7.5 |
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Northern San Gregorio |
7.2 |
3.9 |
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Monte Vista (thrust fault) |
-- |
-- |
Note to experts: The probabilities listed are for specific rupture scenarios from the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 2003 (http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/research/seismology/wg02/index.html). We show the mean probability for single segment rupture sources and the mean magnitude for that segment. These values are found as the last section in Tables 6.4 - 6.10 of Chapter 6 (PDF, 12 MB). The main graphic for earthquake probabilities shows aggregate probabilities -- the chance that one or more segments of each fault system will rupture. Aggregate probabilities are universally higher because the chances that at least one rupture scenario will occur from a group of scenarios affecting that fault is higher than any single scenario.. The USGS report does not explicitly calculate probabilities for the Maacama, West Napa, or Monte Vista thrust faults.
